Time is Running Out to Avert War With Iran

A nuclear-armed Iran would pose a massive threat to global peace and security. It would trigger a deadly arms race drawing in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Israel and Pakistan. That would raise significantly the prospect of nuclear war and the likelihood of terrorists acquiring an atomic weapon.

For those reasons, there is broad consensus between the US and the European Union that Tehran's nuclear ambitions must be frustrated, but there is little agreement on how to achieve that. The US will this week launch a diplomatic offensive at the United Nations. Washington wants to negotiate a new Security Council resolution condemning Iran for failing to abandon its nuclear weapons program and tightening sanctions as punishment.

There is little chance of the Americans getting their way at the Security Council. Russia wants to wait and see what effect two previous resolutions and existing sanctions will have. Tehran, meanwhile, is happy with a 'work plan' already agreed with the International Atomic Energy Association, under which it agrees to answer questions about its nuclear program, but not to suspend uranium enrichment. Britain, France and Germany - the so-called EU3 - are skeptical about that plan. The US is downright scornful, believing it to be a stalling tactic.

The Iranians also have reason to be skeptical. They hear some of the rhetoric coming out of Washington and conclude that, whatever they do, they will be attacked. So they may conclude that the only course of action is full acceleration towards a nuclear deterrent.

It is true that the US is increasingly bellicose. The balance of power in the Bush administration is shifting away from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who favors cautious engagement with Tehran, and towards Vice-President Dick Cheney, who urges confrontation.

That shift means Britain's diplomatic leverage in Washington is also waning. Dr Rice is much more inclined to listen to US allies than Mr Cheney. But London also has some diplomatic leverage in Iran. While deciphering Iran's internal power struggles is difficult, Britain has sufficient contact to transmit a clear but discreet message to the regime. That message should be simple: war can still be averted, but for that to happen, the US hawks must be deprived of the obvious pretext to attack and the doves sufficiently rewarded for their diplomatic efforts. That means abandoning the pretense of the IAEA 'work plan' and committing to an immediate halt in uranium enrichment.

The US is not destined to attempt a bombing raid on Iran's nuclear facilities, but it is bound to lose patience with diplomacy soon.