German Arrests Expose Growing Al-qaida Network

An interesting element among the few details to have emerged so far about the arrests by German officials over an alleged bomb plot is the link with Pakistan.

Otherwise it appears to be relatively typical in its targeting - high-profile civilian mass transit systems, American military installation and nightclubs.

All three suspects had undergone training at camps in Pakistan run by the Islamic Jihad Union, and had formed a German cell of the group, officials said.

The Pakistan link is significant as, over the last two years, intelligence officials in the UK have often emphasized the particular vulnerability of Britain to a newly reconstituted al-Qaida hardcore based on the Afghan-Pakistani frontier. This vulnerability is based largely on the historic links between a high proportion of the British Muslim population and Pakistan which have meant prospective militants in the UK can travel there for training and strategic direction with much greater ease than those in, say, France or the US.

But the arrests in Germany indicate that a wider range of individuals are seeking out the senior al-Qaida leaders around Osama bin Laden - the "middle management" and the successive men who have filled the "No 3" role of director of external operations. Many of these individuals would not be able to travel as easily as a young Briton with dual nationality or Urdu language skills.

One of the suspects is Turkish, which is no surprise - Germany's Muslim population is largely of Turkish origin. But the two other suspects are apparently converts. They would be able to avoid suspicion from local intelligence services but would find it harder to penetrate wary militant networks in Pakistan without some very good introductions.

A recent survey of European militants by a Dutch thinktank found that converts were heavily over-represented, at around 8% of those arrested. Converts are of great concern to western security services due to their evident ability to "stay below the radar". Security sources describe conversion and subsequent radicalization (the two sometimes go hand-in-hand) as a "social phenomenon" and emphasize the social and economic marginalization of many of them. Richard Reid, the shoe bomber, is the classic British case.

The large quantity of explosives apparently stockpiled by the alleged cell members indicates that any visit to Pakistan was not too recent, as the instructors in militant camps in the area now favor new ways of making smaller, lighter explosives that are more easily concealed.

There appear to be parallels between this plot and the sort of conspiracy revealed to the British public during the recent "Operation Crevice" trial here. That plot took shape between 2002 and 2004.

Germany has been the target of a relatively small number of attacks - one serious attempt failed last year because of amateur bomb-making skills - but a major attack in the country where the September 11 hijackers initially came together has always been likely.

· Jason Burke is the author of Al-Qaeda: The True Story of Radical Islam