US Military Braced for Tet-style Offensive to Destabilise Iraq Surge

The US fears a surprise attack in Iraq over the next few weeks comparable to the 1968 Tet offensive that threatened to overwhelm American forces in Vietnam, according to a joint intelligence report published yesterday.

A US defense official, briefing journalists ahead of publication, said US forces are braced for "a mini-Tet". He predicted the attack could be timed to maximize political pressure on the US president, George Bush, when the US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, goes to Congress to provide an up-to-date assessment of progress in Iraq.

The national intelligence estimate published yesterday reflects the consensus of 16 US intelligence agencies, including the CIA and the military. Mr Bush was informed of its contents on Monday.

The 10-page summary, Prospects for Iraq's Stability, is the first such report since January, when Mr Bush announced his "surge" strategy. The report said gains had been modest: "There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq's security situation [since January]."

It added: "We assess, to the extent that coalition forces continue to conduct robust counterinsurgency operations and mentor and support the Iraqi security forces, that Iraq's security will continue to improve modestly during the next 6-12 months but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance."

It was critical of the Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, saying bluntly that "Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively".

Mr Bush criticized Mr Maliki on Tuesday but, 24 hours later, in a piece of damage limitation, he praised him. Mr Maliki, on a visit to Syria, had said he could turn to friends elsewhere if the US ditched him - almost certainly a reference to Iran.

The US backed Mr Maliki as prime minister during the political wrangling that led to his appointment as leader, in spite of warnings from the British government that he was not up to the job. The Bush administration is not yet engineering to replace him, mainly because it cannot find a suitable alternative.

The national intelligence estimate underlined the problems created by the lack of what the US sees as a strong leader: "The strains of the security situation and absence of key leaders have stalled internal political debates, slowed national decision-making, and increased Maliki's vulnerability to alternative coalitions."

It expected that Mr Maliki will be undermined by criticism from dissident Shia Muslims in Mr Maliki's unstable coalition, as well as from Sunni political groups and the Kurdish parties.

The report also said the Iraqi army and police had not improved enough to operate independently of the US and other coalition forces. Some of the Iraqi security forces were described as performing "adequately", while others had not even managed to reach that level.

In contrast with regular press statements from the Pentagon about inflicting casualties on al-Qaida in Iraq, the national defense estimates say al-Qaida in Iraq, which has concentrated on "spectacular" attacks, remained strong enough to conduct further high-profile operations.

If US troops were to scale down their mission to supporting Iraqi security forces and hunting al-Qaida, the report claims this "would erode security gains achieved thus far".