Rugby Union: Kiwis Out in Front Despite Dip in Form

The whispers in Kiwi heads must be getting louder. It is World Cup year, which has not proved the All Blacks' favorite time over the past 20 years, and the effortlessness of their recent dominance over everyone has been replaced by something much edgier. People are wondering aloud now whether this means the mental block they have developed over the World Cup - something they haven't won in those 20 years - is a bigger problem than they are letting on.

But the bookies, heartless automatons that they are, have not budged an inch over the past couple of months of international rugby and still have New Zealand as clear favourites. And Graham Henry, only slightly less given to emotional fluctuations than the bookies, seems almost pleased with his charges' indifferent form. No one can accuse them of peaking too early this time.

Unless this team's peak has already been and gone. There are various problems with that theory, though. Firstly, there is no reason to think that this young-ish side won't get better. Presumably, Henry will do away with the policy of rotation that has characterized his reign and when he does we can expect them to reach a new peak.

Secondly, there is a feeling that that peak may not have to be very high. If it's not going to be the All Blacks, then who else? The main movement over the past months by the bookies has been to bring in South Africa to second favorites and let out the hosts, France, to roughly joint third with Australia.

But are any of those so good? South Africa's movement has been on the back of a successful Super 14 in which they boasted both finalists and a couple of huge home wins over a severely compromised England. But they had a great chance to beat an out-of-sorts All Blacks in Durban and failed to take it. And if their second string proved competitive in Australasia it was as much to do with the opposition feeling uninspired by playing them. Australia are probably better bets. They did manage to beat New Zealand, but they were at home and at the All Blacks' mercy for most of the game. On neutral ground they would not have got away with it.

No team has won a World Cup without a dominant character at fly-half. An icon as a captain helps as well, preferably a forward. South Africa and France would fail that test on the first count, and only New Zealand pass both tests with flying colors, boasting the best players in the world in the two categories, Dan Carter and Richie McCaw.

From the northern hemisphere the challengers remain long shots. France will continue to suffer for as long as they fail to find a credible match-winner at No 10. The pressure of playing at home might not help, neither can the very real prospect of them not making it out of a group that will see Ireland and Argentina fancying their chances. And, even if they do, the past two occasions they have taken on the All Blacks at home have seen them walloped. As World Cup final rehearsals they did not bode well.

England qualify quite nicely on the fly-half and captain counts and the positive sounds of recuperation emanating from their camp may yet prove more than hot air. If they can get past South Africa and/or the feisty Samoans they will face an eminently winnable quarter-final against Australia or Wales, and then who knows?

But to look past New Zealand remains little more than a mischievous pastime. They will have a nasty path through the knock-outs, with a quarter-final against France, Ireland or Argentina. But a defeat there or anywhere would require a further deterioration in their form. More to the point, it would need a dramatic upturn in somebody else's.