Australian Minister Warns Against Iraq Pullout

A precipitous withdrawal from Iraq could spark a wider conflict, the Australian foreign minister warned today, amid White House fears that Republican support for George Bush's "surge" strategy is crumbling.

"If you allow Iraq to descend into total chaos with absolutely no international stabilization there and with an Iraqi security force unable to maintain security, then there's a very high risk of (other) countries being drawn in," Alexander Downer told Australian Broadcasting Corporation radio.

He said Saudi Arabia had significant links to Iraq's Sunni Arab community, Iran had close ties to Iraq's Shia Muslims, and Turkey had concerns about Iraq's Kurdish population, prompting "very great concern" about a regional war if coalition troops leave.

Mr Downer's warning came amid reports of an intensifying debate within the White House over whether Mr Bush should announce plans for a gradual withdrawal of American troops from Baghdad and other cities where US forces have suffered heavy casualties.

According to the New York Times, some aides are now telling the president that he should announce plans for a far more narrowly defined mission for American troops that would allow for a staged pullback to forestall more high-level Republican defections.

Mr Bush rejected such a recommendation from the Iraq Study Group in December as a prescription for defeat.

Four more Republican senators, including Pete Domenici of New Mexico last week, have recently declared they can no longer support Mr Bush's "surge" strategy of sending an extra 30,000 troops, mainly into Baghdad, to reduce sectarian violence.

Officials are particularly worried about what Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, will say when he returns from his latest trip to Baghdad.

Mr McCain has suffered a steady slide in the polls because of his steadfast support of the Bush strategy. There is speculation that he may declare the Iraqi government incapable of the kind of political reconciliation that the increased US troop presence was supposed to permit, knocking out a vital prop for the White House's Iraq policy.

The New York Times also reported that the US defence secretary, Robert Gates, has been pressing for a pullback that could roughly halve the number of combat brigades now patrolling the most violent sections of Baghdad and surrounding provinces by early next year.

The remaining combat units would then take up a far more limited mission of training, protecting Iraq's borders and preventing the use of Iraq as a sanctuary by Sunni extremist groups such as al-Qaida in Iraq.

The White House thought it had some breathing space until September 15, when the US commander in Iraq, David Petraeus, and the US ambassador there, Ryan Crocker, presented a progress report on Iraq. But time is running short as the US Senate prepares this week to begin what looks to be a contentious debate on the war's future and financing.

Separately, the leader of a Sunni insurgent umbrella group threatened to wage war against Iran unless it stops supporting Shia Muslims in Iraq within two months, according to an audio tape.

Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, leader of the self-styled Islamic State in Iraq, which is headed by al-Qaida in Iraq, said his Sunni fighters have been preparing for four years to wage a battle against Shia-dominated Iran.

"We are giving the Persians, and especially the rulers of Iran, a two-month period to end all kinds of support for the Iraqi Shia government and to stop direct and indirect intervention ... otherwise a severe war is waiting for you," he said in the 50-minute tape released yesterday.

The Islamic State of Iraq leader did not mention Saturday's deadly truck bomb in Armili, a Shia town north of Baghdad, that killed more than 100 people.

The attack was among the deadliest this year in Iraq and reinforced suspicions that al-Qaida supporters were moving north to less protected regions beyond the US security crackdown in Baghdad.