Al-sadr is Back and He Means Business

Claims that Moqtada al-Sadr's Jaish al-Mahdi militia is behind the kidnapping of five Britons in Iraq rest principally on events in Basra last week, when the killing of a Mahdi army commander by Iraqi and British forces prompted vows of swift revenge. In line with that reasoning, the hunt for the missing men was concentrated yesterday on Sadr City in eastern Baghdad, a neighborhood fiercely loyal to the Shia leader.

The linking of Mr Sadr to the kidnappings, credible or not, is fueling renewed speculation about his broader political intentions following his sudden reappearance in public last Friday. He may be planning another push to undermine the government. Or he could be preparing for a confrontation with US forces similar to that in 2004. Either would represent a serious complication for the Bush administration's surge strategy in and around Baghdad. US commanders had linked Mr Sadr's disappearance in January to the start of the 30,000 troop reinforcement. An administration official said he fled to Iran for a "prolonged psychological sulk".

Mr Sadr's aides deny he left Iraq. That is beside the point after his reappearance at Friday prayers in Kufa. He launched into a trademark anti-American tirade but more significantly called for an end to sectarian strife and a Shia-Sunni alliance to force out the US.

A showdown has been on the cards since the surge began. Record US casualties this month partly reflect escalating conflict with Shia militias. Now Mr Sadr may have returned just in time for the main event: a US attempt to seize control of Sadr City. "The final wave of US troops that arrives in June will be sent to Baghdad's outer suburbs...where much of the violence now originates. Their task will be to seek out and defeat both al-Qaida and Jaish al-Mahdi," says an analysis published this month by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "To be successful, US forces will, over the summer, need to enter Sadr City."

President George Bush is anticipating a "tough, difficult, bloody August". But a head-on collision with Mr Sadr was not inevitable, said a senior US official in Baghdad. "There is no deliberate plan to attack. The key thing is to determine who is reconcilable and who is not." In the right circumstances it was possible to work with Mr Sadr to weed out Iranian-directed extremists in the Mahdi army, he suggested. Mr Sadr, in his absence, is said to have lost control over some who are blamed for increased attacks on the Green Zone, in Basra - and perhaps this week's kidnappings.

Mr Sadr's apparent bid to distance himself from Tehran and cast himself as a nationalist leader, coupled with his anti-government maneuverings, suggest a man focused on expanding political power. If the government falls short of reconciliation goals, Washington may yet look to stronger Shia leaders. Like it or not, Mr Sadr will be hard to ignore.