Horse Racing: Heavy Going Could Ruin Favourites' Cheltenham Chances

Like the rest of the country, the Cotswolds have had a drenching and for the first time in 18 years the Cheltenham Festival looks set to include the word "heavy" in its going description. So who are the winners and losers if the ground is indeed testing? The highest-profile casualty looks like being Black Jack Ketchum, who stopped to nothing in taxing conditions at the last Cheltenham meeting in January. He is friendless in the betting for the World Hurdle.

By contrast, the omens are good for Amaretto Rose, ante-post favourite for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. Nicky Henderson's mare bolted up last time in the mud at Haydock and every ounce of the 7lbs she will receive from the geldings will be invaluable.

Not so bomb-proof is Fair Along, currently favourite for the Arkle Chase. If it comes up heavy, Philip Hobbs, his trainer, has expressed concern for his five-year-old, who is on the small side.

Whether or not they include My Way De Solzen remains to be seen. The Ryanair Chase, over 2m5f, is an option for Alan King's seven-year-old, but the 2m Arkle in the mud would look ideal. He won the World Hurdle last year, but his trainer has never doubted his ability over the minimum trip on a suitably slow surface.

Hard and fast rules are difficult to apply in the Champion Hurdle. Heavy going would be new to the favourite, Detroit City, but this bulldozer of a horse has won well in soft ground and gives the impression he will cope with anything the elements throw at him.

Irish horses occupy seven of the next eight places in the Champion Hurdle betting and, on their overall record on heavy ground, the dual champion Hardy Eustace just about comes out on top.

Heavy ground has figured in Aran Concerto's last two wins, and Noel Meade's highly-regarded six-year-old has no doubts on the going front in Wednesday's opening race, the Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle.

Denman, who will be an even shorter price for the Royal & SunAlliance Chase, has a win on heavy ground to his name. He will cope with testing conditions, but backers have to ask themselves whether he deserves to be as low as 11-10 for a race which has only featured one winning favourite since 1992.

Few horses actually require deep ground to produce their best form, but Nickname is one of them. It is no surprise to see Martin Brassil's gelding one of the best backed contenders for the Champion Chase. Nickname has won 16 races, 10 of which came on very soft or heavy ground.

None of his main opponents can be ruled out on the going ticket alone, although a slog in the mud may not be ideal for 7-4 favourite Well Chief.

In the Champion Bumper, Cork All Star heads the market at around 5-1 but conditions could conspire against this Flat-bred gelding. At twice the price, heavy-ground Fairyhouse winner Aranleigh will have his followers.

The ground will have to dry appreciably if Black Jack Ketchum is even to take his chance in Thursday's Ladbrokes World Hurdle. Mighty Man is another doubt on testing ground, but it should not deter Blazing Bailey or Inglis Drever, first and second in the Cleeve Hurdle, and certainly not Emma Lavelle's novice mudlark, Labelthou.

Come Friday and the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup, the question of Kauto Star's stamina for 3m2f in testing ground could be just as big a factor in assessing his prospects as the favourite's well-publicised jumping errors.

If anything, the New Course, which is used on the last two days of the meeting, will be more demanding than the Old, as the former has been raced on in December and January when the ground was bad.

Both Exotic Dancer and The Listener, the next two behind Kauto Star in the betting, are proven in heavy ground. At bigger prices, My Will and Halcon Genelardais (who will wear blinkers for the first time) qualify as each-way propositions in what is shaping up to be, more than ever, a stayers' Gold Cup.

Ron Cox's tip of the day


Jericho III 3.40 Wincanton

Venetia Williams exploited a much lower mark over hurdles with her good two-mile chaser Lorient Express last season and she can repeat the trick with Jericho III. Running off a mark of 136 when fifth over fences at Sandown last month, Jericho III is 30lb lower in the ratings on this first run back over hurdles since June 2003. A confirmed front-runner, he will be hard to peg back.