What Lies Ahead Now the Votes Have Been Counted in the Last Remnant of What Was Once Yugoslavia

Who won?

No single party won outright. The extreme nationalist Radical party, led by Vojislav Seselj - who is on trial for war crimes in The Hague - won 28% of the vote, giving them 81 seats in the 250-seat legislature. The centre-left Democrats led by Boris Tadic, the staunchly pro-EU president, won 65 seats - less than they hoped. The result was a blow to the US and the EU, which had hoped for a strong pro-western government to deal with on the future of Kosovo and EU membership.

Who will form the next government?

The Democrats are expected to form a government with supporters of the nationalist-leaning prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica, whose Democratic Party of Serbia won about 16% of the vote or 48 seats. He will probably stay on as prime minister at the head of the new coalition. Mr Tadic's Democrats are expected to take over key economic posts. The Radicals, considered political pariahs by the EU and the US, will be frozen out.

How will the election affect the future of Kosovo?

The UN mediator Martti Ahtisaari delayed his proposals on Kosovo's future until after Sunday's election so as not to give a political boost to Serbia's nationalists, as his plan is expected to call for limited independence of the mostly ethnic Albanian province. Hard bargaining lies ahead as all of Serbia's main parties consider Kosovo an integral part of their country. On the other hand, ethnic Albanians, who make up about 90% of Kosovo's population of 2 million, want outright independence. Kosovo has been under UN administration since the end of the war between Serb forces and ethnic Albanian separatists in 1999 that hastened the political demise of Slobodan Milosevic.

Who will decide Kosovo's final status?

That will be up to the UN security council, where Russia backs Belgrade's claims that Kosovo should stay part of Serbia. The US supports independence. The EU is divided. Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Romania and Slovakia oppose secession, while Britain, the Netherlands and others support independence.

What is happening with Serbia's EU membership? The EU froze talks with Serbia eight months ago because of its failure to arrest General Ratko Mladic, a former Bosnian Serb army commander indicted for war crimes. Since then, several EU officials have indicated that talks could resume if a new pro-EU government pledged that it is doing its best to track down the fugitive general.

© Guardian News & Media 2008
Published: 1/22/2007
 
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