Leftwinger Takes Poll Lead in Ecuador's Presidential Run-off

A leftwing radical emerged as the narrow favourite to win Ecuador's run-off presidential election yesterday and give a fresh surge to Latin America's "pink tide". Rafael Correa, a charismatic ally of Venezuela's president, Hugo Chávez, and a fierce critic of the US, edged into the lead in an opinion poll on the eve of the vote.

However a large number of undecided voters could deliver victory to Alvaro Noboa, a banana tycoon who advocates closer ties to Washington and breaking links with Venezuela and Cuba.

Television stations were expected to provide exit polls last night, but the official result may not be announced until tomorrow. In recent weeks Mr Correa, 43, has bounced back from a double-digit deficit and a Cedatos opinion poll on Saturday put him in the lead at 54%, with Mr Noboa trailing at 46%. Following Daniel Ortega's return to power in Nicaragua earlier this month, it could herald a fresh headache for the Bush administration.

However Ecuador's volatile politics have often tripped up pollsters, including last month when Mr Noboa, 56, surprisingly emerged from a crowded field to obtain the most votes in the first round.

Both candidates have promised to help the poor, but their election campaigns were marked more by insults than policy proposals. Mr Noboa, reportedly the country's richest man, denounced Mr Correa as a communist puppet of Venezuela's socialist leader and Cuba's Fidel Castro.

Mr Correa, a US-trained economist, counter-attacked by accusing Mr Noboa of dodging tax, exploiting labourers and wanting to turn the country into a giant banana plantation. He also accused the US president, George Bush, of being dim.

Mr Correa claimed that the ruling oligarchy had committed fraud in the first round, and warned of a similar plot yesterday. If he loses he will almost certainly cry foul and could trigger a crisis.

Xavier Cazar, president of the supreme electoral tribunal, told Radio Universal that people should not respond to exit polls. "I make a heartfelt appeal to the people of Ecuador: you must have the security, the tranquillity, the peace of mind to wait for the official results."

Ecuador has modest oil reserves, but widespread poverty and discontent have made its politics volatile. The last three elected presidents were ousted by street and legislative protests.

Mr Noboa, making his third attempt at the presidency, ran a populist campaign citing the Bible, and used his wealth to give away wheelchairs, computers, food and cash. He promised to build 300,000 homes for the poor and to use his business ties to the likes of the Kennedy and Rockefeller families to attract investment.

Mr Correa made investors skittish by threatening to reduce foreign debt payments, but recently moderated his attacks on the US as well as Ecuador's assembly, which he had threatened to dissolve.