Ecuador's Leftwing Presidential Hopeful Surges in Polls

A US-bashing presidential candidate who wants Ecuador to join Latin America's "pink tide" of leftwing governments has surged in the run-up to next week's vote.

Rafael Correa, 43, a charismatic economist, has a strong chance of winning the November 26 run-off, according to an opinion poll that puts him neck-and-neck with a banana tycoon, Alvaro Noboa, 55.

Mr Correa trailed his rival by double digits after last month's first-round vote but recovered ground after softening attacks against the Bush administration and distancing himself from his ally, Venezuela's president, Hugo Chávez.

He apologised for saying the US president was dumber than the devil and said Mr Chávez was wrong to intervene by openly backing his candidacy. However, if he won, the underdog would continue a leftward tilt in the region following Daniel Ortega's election in Nicaragua earlier this month.

A national survey by Cedatos-Gallup gave Mr Correa 38% compared to 41% for Mr Noboa. With a margin of error of 3.5%, and Ecuador's reputation for voter volatility, the race appeared to be wide open.

The poll, taken this week, was published in a report by the New York-based investment bank Credit Suisse and a copy was forwarded to the Associated Press. Under Ecuadorean law polls cannot be published in the country in the last three weeks of an election. "Correa's more moderate rhetoric during the second-round campaign appears to have improved his image among Ecuadorean voters, helping him garner more support," said Credit Suisse.

Another investment bank, JP Morgan, sold Ecuadorean bonds in response to the volatility but said it still expected Mr Noboa, a billionaire who has run twice before, to clinch victory.

Whoever wins will have a tough job. The Andean nation has toppled its last three previously elected presidents through protests on the streets and in congress, and there is a mood of anger with the political process. Ecuador is South America's fifth-biggest oil producer but 40% of the 13.5m population lives below the poverty line.

Mr Noboa has used his wealth to donate wheelchairs, food and cash in a populist campaign that has promised wealth, stability and warm relations with Washington. He said he would ignore Venezuela's firebrand president.