Sandinista Comeback Alarms Us

Daniel Ortega is a hair's breadth from regaining power in Nicaragua and staging one of Latin America's most remarkable political comebacks, according to new opinion polls.

The Sandinista leader is far ahead of rival candidates and could win in the first round of a presidential election on 5 November, a prospect causing consternation in Washington. Two surveys gave the former Marxist revolutionary between 33.8 and 34.4 per cent support, just a whisker short of the 35 per cent he needs to avoid a run-off.

Ortega, ousted in a 1990 election after his Sandinista government had fought a civil war against US-backed Contra guerrillas, has reinvented himself as a moderate and a reconciler who will bring jobs and growth. His campaign colour is pastel pink, his rallies play John Lennon's 'Give Peace a Chance', and his running mate is Jaime Morales, an ex-Contra.

Ortega, 60, is paunchier since his rebel heyday, when he was compared to Che Guevara. Secularism has given way to support for the Catholic Church and its abortion ban campaign. He has declined to debate with rival candidates and focuses on rapturous rallies in the barrios.

This is his third run for President since 1990, and Nicaraguans feel Ortega never went away. But in Washington he is still seen as a threat. US ambassador Paul Trivelli and senior Bush officials have warned Nicaraguans of dire consequences if he wins. 'Their reaction to the prospect that he may well come back now sometimes borders on the hysterical,' said Michael Shifter, of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think-tank.