Ecuador Tilts Left As Outsider Leads in Polls

A charismatic leftwing outsider was expected to lead Ecuador's presidential election yesterday, raising the prospect of another South American government hostile to the US.

Rafael Correa, 43, was the frontrunner in opinion polls after running a deft campaign that attacked the Bush administration and praised Veneuzela's president, Hugo Chávez.

But Mr Correa was unlikely to win in the first round and could face a tough battle in a runoff next month if the political establishment unites to stop him.

The former finance minister and university professor has promised to usher in a citizens' revolution to help the poor, squeeze foreign oil companies and be a thorn in the side of the "tremendously dimwitted" US president, George Bush.

The sense of drama heightened when two earthquakes shook the capital, Quito, yesterday, but there were no immediate reports of damage or injuries.

Mr Correa, a US-trained economist, surged from nowhere to more than 30% in the polls after vowing to lash the discredited political class - a slogan that played on his last name, which means belt. Unless he wins more than 40% he will be forced into a runoff on November 26 with his nearest rival of 13 candidates.

That is likely to be Alvaro Noboa, 55, a flamboyant banana magnate who carries a Bible and has promised better housing, education and health services. A Cedatos Gallup poll on Saturday showed Mr Correa's support slipping to 31% of intended voters and Mr Noboa climbing to 25%. Almost a third of voters were undecided.

Ecuador has modest oil reserves and tourist-friendly scenery, but three quarters of the 13.4 million people are poor, says the UN children's agency Unicef.

Protests have forced three elected presidents from power and there is widespread disenchantment with the congress, seen as a club for aloof politicians.

Instead of running candidates for the congress, which he called a "sewer", Mr Correa promised a referendum and an election for a new assembly to rewrite the constitution. He also said he would not renew the lease for a US military base and threatened to default on foreign debt.

When Mr Chávez called Mr Bush the "devil" in a UN address last month the Ecuadorean frontrunner said that was an insult to Satan, who at least was clever.

The Venezuelan president wants to tilt Latin America's trend of leftwing governments into an alliance against Washington. But mindful that his support for candidates in Peru and Mexico backfired, he has not openly backed Mr Correa.

Some analysts predict that despite the fiery rhetoric, Mr Correa, should he win, would emulate the relatively moderate and pragmatic leftwing governments in Brazil and Argentina.